I beat the Pre-Poll Surveys Conducted by the Media Wings as well as the Professional Organizations.
LS 2004 missed predicting the NDA figure by 7 or 8. There was a Prize Contest going on, remember.
I could never get my figures for West Bengal , U.P. Bihar right. My max. error margin was for WB. But this time, I concentrated on WB.
Surprised myself in getting 38 outcomes right out of 42. Accuracy = 90.47 %
See http://indianpoliticalanalysis.blogspot.com Don't know whether I'll do this stuff any longer ..can feel the heat -)
If you can't click 'n' get the enlarged 7 jpg files with Logic & Suggestions given for the Congress-TMC combine (done in an impulsive moment - I'm basically not into politics)..do ket know..I'll send it to you in .pdf
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written by Debajyoti Dutta-Roy, 2009-08-21 06:50:10
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written by Krishna Kirti Das, 2009-07-14 11:57:42
I also add my congratulations to your high score.
I looked briefly at the screen shots you have on your site (they are difficult to read), and it appears that your methodology relies less on statistics than on noting significant events that are likely to significantly influence an election.
In other words, your approach to predicting the elections appears to be more ideographic than nomothetic. An ideographic approach may indeed be a better aproach than a nomothetic approach simply because there are too many unknown variables and events that themselves are not statistically significant can nevertheless have tremendous influence. I noticed that you had identified some of these kinds of events in your analysis. Why I think you might have had a better outcome in predicting the election is that you may have been paying closer attention to the election pulse than some of the newspapers and perhaps some other political analysts themselves--especially if their analytical approach relied more on poll results than on key events and changes in the political environment. If you had instead tried to predict the election outcomes in Kerela, for example, and you aren't native to that area, your predictions might be less reliable because the cultural distance might put some critical information out of reach.
In any event you mentioned that your psephological work is an avocation that you would like to develop. Please send me a message if you would like to discuss this further.
All the best,
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written by P. Desikan, 2009-06-23 15:45:24
Let us all enjoy the trend, if it gets going from now on, as indicated by your observation
One REAL POSITIVE FACT EMERGING FROM THIS ELECTIONS ON A NATIONAL LEVEL - THE COMBINED STRENGTH OF THE CONGRESS + BJP IS FAR BETTER THAN THAT OF PREVIOUS ELECTIONS.
Regards. Partha
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